Sunday, January 14, 2007

The beast is starving -- except that it isn't a beast

"Starve the beast" has been the slogan of tax-cutting conservatives for decades. Starting with the Reagan administration, they have attempted to reduce the capability of government to do anything by cutting off its revenue sources through tax cuts. And in this, they have been sucessful.

And those conservatives now regret it. President Bush is planning to send a few tens of thousands of additional troops to Iraq, despite the fact that nobody really believes that such a small increment will do any good. Why not send more? Well, even if there were still popular support for the war, there aren't any troops to send. And there isn't the money to enlarge the military. Why? The sucess of the tax cuts. They worked.

I do not gloat over this situation. President Bush has no capability to do anything about the real dangers like the actions of the current government of Iran. He seems to have bought the idea that forcing Israel to make peace with the Palestinians will solve a substantial part of the problems of the middle east. It won't, partly because the Palestinians don't want peace (look who won their last election) and partly because the problems in Iraq and Lebanon would still be there even if Israel were to disappear tomorrow.

The conservatives have been successful. And for that we all lose.

And I haven't even begun to enumerate the tremendous domestic problems for which government might be able to contribute to a solution.

86 Comments:

Blogger Ezzie said...

I think we've discussed this before, but that's simply false. Tax revenues are up.

You want more money? Cut Social Security.

9:27 PM  
Blogger Larry Lennhoff said...

'Starve the beast' was Reagan's slogan, but Republicans under Reagan cut the domestic side while vastly expanding military spending. President Bush would love to have the 80's military back, in numbers and budget if not in technology.

The military got cut under the so-called 'peace dividend' during the 90s, mostly.

4:48 AM  
Blogger Charlie Hall said...

'Tax revenues are up.'

Not true.

If you adjust for inflation, which is the correct way to look at things, revenues are lower than in 2000. See page 26 of

http://www.gpoaccess.gov/usbudget/fy07/pdf/hist.pdf

And even if you don't adjust for inflation, it took four years for the government's revenue to get back to the 2000 level.

And this is during a war! By comparison, government revenues increased by more than a factor of four during World War II. Even during the escalation of the Vietnam war, revenues increased by about 40%.

This is why much of the American public doesn't believe that Iraq is important: The government itself, starting with the President, doesn't believe it is important.

'You want more money? Cut Social Security. '

May the Democrats quote you on that? The truth is, Social Security does not provide an adequate income for most recipients. And sadly, private pensions are becoming rarer and rarer. The crisis will come about the time I retire when the Social Security Trust Fund will have to be supplemented with general revenues.

The real potential sources of savings in the federal budget are defense and health care. It probably is not prudent to cut the defense budget much but we could redirect a lot of money paid to politically well connected defense contractors producing unnecessary weapons systems and direct those resources toward improving the force structure -- but that was John Kerry's plan. Substantial savings could be achieved in health care costs (the US spends far more on health care than any other country) without lowering quality of care, but there isn't the political will to do so.

8:26 AM  
Blogger Charlie Hall said...

'President Bush would love to have the 80's military back, in numbers and budget if not in technology.'

There really isn't anything wrong with the US military's current technology. It remains far ahead of that of any potential threat and would remain so even if we cancelled every weapons system currently under development. But even current weapons systems are so expensive to develop and produce that we can't afford a sufficiently large military to do meet all our commitments.

8:28 AM  
Blogger Ezzie said...

You're looking at the wrong years. Compare it to 2002, not 2000 - revenues were already dropping by then from the bubble burst. You can't compare to 2000, which is a bubble year, and well before the cuts were implemented. You have to do so to 2002 - when revenues had already dropped about 10%. Put inflation back in, and we're STILL ahead.

Not every war causes a major increase - in past wars, certain businesses boomed as more supplies became necessary. I haven't heard of any industry that has had a major increase in production due to the Iraq War, nor of the US Army making any major acquisitions. They're using what supplies they already have, in general; they're not losing many materials as in past wars (tanks, planes, et al) that need to be replaced. Most goods they consume are consumed even by trainees in the US.

May the Democrats quote you on that? The truth is, Social Security does not provide an adequate income for most recipients. And sadly, private pensions are becoming rarer and rarer. The crisis will come about the time I retire when the Social Security Trust Fund will have to be supplemented with general revenues.

Then why did the Democrats take pride in blocking the President's attempt to actually change it?! I had this argument with our mutual friend/relative a couple of days ago, and didn't receive a satisfactory answer. I think he agrees, too.

The real potential sources of savings in the federal budget are defense and health care.

No, they're in SocSec and healthcare.

10:49 AM  
Blogger The Anti-Semite said...

Hmmmm... lots of strong points.
But I still disagree with them.

I like tax cuts. I don't like to give my money to corrupt hassidic rebbes and illegal immigrants. Let Pelosi, Bush, Kerry, Kennedy et al pay for the war. Tax the IRS. Stop all those 501(3)(c)'s that suck the treasury dry. Shut the unions. Prevent Congress from voting raises for themselves. Gradually decrease social handouts and increse the minimum wage. Today it's cheaper to poop a baby than to buy a condom, and unemployment with a few 'bonus' (or bogus) "benmefits" pays better than quite a few jobs. this is what I really think of taxes.

And yes, I do believe that tax cuts stimulate the economy and in the long run increse revenues. "And even if you don't adjust for inflation, it took four years for the government's revenue to get back to the 2000 level. " Did you expect to see results 7 1/2 minutes after the cuts went in effect?

"And this is during a war! By comparison, government revenues increased by more than a factor of four during World War II. Even during the escalation of the Vietnam war, revenues increased by about 40%."

The war itself is a reason for revenues to decrease. Mosey is being fired and fired upon, workers are firing instead of hiring or being hired. The revenue increse is due to offshoots and ramifications of the war. But Bush the lib is scared of the more libs to take Arab oil to pay for the war, and his no-bid contracts didn't benefit the economy too much either.

Bottom line is, when I work for a buck I wanna keep it. The rotten government won't even fix the road on which I travel to work, police officers here make 90K to stop an 82 years old grandma for doing 37 in the 35 zone, but won't chas vesholem arrest an illegal alien.

6:07 PM  
Blogger Charlie Hall said...

"Stop all those 501(3)(c)'s that suck the treasury dry. "

You really want all the synagogues and yeshivas to start paying taxes?

7:57 PM  
Blogger Charlie Hall said...

"Then why did the Democrats take pride in blocking the President's attempt to actually change it?!"

Because the Republicans who were really responsible for blocking it (remember the Democrats have only been in control of Congress for less than two weeks) are too embarassed to admit that they did it.



"I haven't heard of any industry that has had a major increase in production due to the Iraq War, nor of the US Army making any major acquisitions. They're using what supplies they already have, in general; they're not losing many materials as in past wars (tanks, planes, et al) that need to be replaced. "

You have just made my point. This is a war in name only. There is no wartime expansion of the military. No increase in defense-related production. No call for sacrifice that one would expect if this were a war against a real existential threat to America.

There are two possibilities: (1) The threat is real, and President Bush has utterly failed as a leader, or (2) The threat is contrived in order to keep Republicans in control of the government. I think (1) is true, but an awful lot of the public thinks (2) is true.

8:29 PM  
Blogger Charlie Hall said...

' Prevent Congress from voting raises for themselves. '

Already done. It did take over 200 years to do it:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-seventh_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution

8:33 PM  
Blogger Charlie Hall said...

'chas vesholem arrest an illegal alien'

Local police don't have jurisdiction to do that, unless they have been given specific permission to do so by the federal government. The separation of powers is an important part of the US Constitution: States have no control over immigration.

8:34 PM  
Blogger The Anti-Semite said...

"Already done. It did take over 200 years to do it:"

>>> 'twas about time. Sorry for not knowing, I'm a caveman. I have no cell phone, I still spin vinyl records and my car has a carb.

"You really want all the synagogues and yeshivas to start paying taxes?"

>>>I wasn't talking about that obviously. You'll be surprised how many hospitals, nursing homes etc., are "non-profit" that spend like there's no tomorrow. Not to speak about universities and community "colleges". The creatures dwelling there were once called "bums", today they're "students".

"Local police don't have jurisdiction to do that, unless they have been given specific permission to do so by the federal government."

>>> yup, yup, yup. So because it's Big Brother putting the lid on the local cop, his $90K/yr is justified, and the illegals schools, healthcare, housing & foodstamps aren't coming out of my pocket. Dude, when there's a crack in the road, the solution is not building a hospital next to the hole to tend to the injured but to fill the darn hole. Bottom line: I want to pay as less taxes as possible. Let's drill in Colorado, California, Alaska and Florida, let the arabs choke on their petroleum, close the border, decrese social services and increse the min. wage so the bum on the street is forced to work for his dope.

And you're still my favorite leftist ever. "With enemies like Charlie, who needs friends?"

6:04 PM  
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4:28 PM  
Blogger Charlie Hall said...

"Let's drill in Colorado, California, Alaska and Florida, let the arabs choke on their petroleum, "

Even if every single possible oilfield under US jurisdiction were to be explored to the maximum, there would not be sufficient reserves to eliminate US dependence upon imports. Substantial reductions in demand would also be needed. And the only way to do that would be massive government intrusion into the market -- like a total ban on SUVS. It isn't going to happen. Furthermore, that increased production would only be economical if the price of oil is higher than it is today -- or if it is massively subsidized by the government. Do you support a 10% increase in your income tax to subsidize oil companies? Finally, we would have to actively prohibit oil imports, which would result in trade sanctions being imposed against the United States by the World Trade Organization. Or, if we simply left the WTO, a trade war that would result in the few manufacturing jobs left in the US being exported and massive reductions in the service sector of the US economy. A similar trade war, courtesy of Senator Smoot and Congressman Hawley, directly precipitated the Great Depression and indirectly World War II.

"close the border,"

The border can't be closed. Free movement of goods, services, and people are essential to too much of the US economy. In addition, open borders are essential to the survival of the Jewish people: It was closed borders that prevented Jews from escaping the Nazis.

" decrese social services "

Which social services? By far the largest program for poor people in the US is the Medicaid program for health care. End it, and you will trigger disease epidemics that will affect the entire world -- not to mention the destruction of much of the economy of New York City, which is dependent upon health care expenditures. All the others put together don't come close to the cost of Medicaid. Better to improve efficiency through a single payer insurance system -- the economies of scale alone would result in a substantial increase in productivity for every company with an employer paid health plan and would be a tremendous boost to the economy. But everyone will scream "socialism" so it won't happen.

"and increse the min. wage so the bum on the street is forced to work for his dope."

Increasing the minimum wage is pretty popular, but it probably does not have as much effect on the economy as either proponents or opponents think. Even Wal-Mart pays almost all its employees more than the proposed higher minimum wage already.

5:55 PM  
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6:41 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"In addition, open borders are essential to the survival of the Jewish people: It was closed borders that prevented Jews from escaping the Nazis."

That's sort of a silly argument, isn't it? Open borders were needed to escape the domestic German threat. That hardly supports welcoming threatening aliens into America.

- Moishe Potemkin

5:29 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Increasing the minimum wage is pretty popular, but it probably does not have as much effect on the economy as either proponents or opponents think."

There are unfortunately many popular ideas whose economic impacts are widely under-estimated and mis-understood.

- Moishe Potemkin

5:33 AM  
Blogger The Anti-Semite said...

RE Ellison:

this is probably a lie. Only what Holy DuvBear writes can be true, can't it?

12:44 PM  
Blogger Charlie Hall said...

'domestic German threat'

It wasn't a domestic threat. 95% of the Jews the Nazis murdered weren't German. The closed borders prevented Polish, Lithuanian, Romanian, and French Jews from fleeing their countries once the Nazi sympathizers and occupiers took over.

A major reason for the closed borders policy adopted by the US in 1924 was to keep out aliens considered to be threatening. And Eastern European Jews were definitely considered threatening.

8:47 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"It wasn't a domestic threat. 95% of the Jews the Nazis murdered weren't German. The closed borders prevented Polish, Lithuanian, Romanian, and French Jews from fleeing their countries once the Nazi sympathizers and occupiers took over."

Your punctiliousness offers no support to your contention that we should ignore the threat posed by some potential immigrants.

5:33 AM  
Blogger Charlie Hall said...

'your contention that we should ignore the threat posed by some potential immigrants'

Where did I contend that?

Most of the anti-immigrant sentiment is directed toward Mexicans. Yes, there was one Mexican who carried out a terrorist attack on US soil. His name was Pancho Villa and the attack was in 1916. The current nativism is as racist as was the 1920s anti-immigrant sentiment, which was directed in part towards Jews. It is a sign of the level of assimilation of the Jewish community in America that many of us identify with an imagined plight of our white non-Jewish neighbors in America than with the potential plight of Jews in the rest of the world.

12:14 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Where did I contend that?"

I lack the technological prowess to link to your relevant comment in one of the threads of DovBear's blog. In the context of a discussion about tolerance of Muslims, you advocated open borders to all because of the historical benefits to the Jews.

"Most of the anti-immigrant sentiment is directed toward Mexicans."

It's easy, logically worthless, and woefully inaccurate, to posit exclusively negative ulterior motives to one's ideological adversaries, and then to condemn them for having such motivations. Which is a long-winded way of saying, "Says who?" I know of no respected advocate for controlled immigration that holds that position out of anti-Mexican bias. Concerns that the U.S./Mexican border might be an easy channel for terrorist infiltration, sure, but against Mexicans, per se? Only in the fevered imaginations of those who assume that those who disagree with them are evil.

"The current nativism is as racist as was the 1920s anti-immigrant sentiment, which was directed in part towards Jews. It is a sign of the level of assimilation of the Jewish community in America that many of us identify with an imagined plight of our white non-Jewish neighbors in America than with the potential plight of Jews in the rest of the world."

Again, you are attributing the worst of motives to people with whom you disagree, rather than addressing the issues themselves.

As an aside, can I assume that you are also strongly in favor of outsourcing jobs to India for economic reasons? (I am, myself, just to be clear.) The knee-jerk opposition to such (regrettably not uncommon on your side of the political aisle) strikes me exactly as a sign of "identify(ing) an imagined plight of our white non-Jewish neighbors in America than with the potential plight of (people) in the rest of the world."

I'm not trying to be snarky here - your blog is one of the few oases of rational discussion, and I would love to see a defence of your positions based in something other than thinly-veiled hatred of Republicans.

- Moishe Potemkin

1:03 PM  
Blogger Charlie Hall said...

'Again, you are attributing the worst of motives to people with whom you disagree, rather than addressing the issues themselves.'

In the case of the nativists, they spoke for themselves. Here is an example:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Passing_of_the_Great_Race

And regarding terrorist infiltration, the border with Canada is much easier to cross. Most of it is completely unguarded and it is twice as long as the border with Mexico. But you don't hear much about keeping out those Canadians!

7:46 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

All of the nativists? Every single person in favour of better border enforcement? I can't check your Wikipedia reference, but I doubt the cited views are representative of anything other than a small group of kooks.

-Moishe Potemkin

3:33 AM  
Blogger Charlie Hall said...

'All of the nativists? '

There is nothing wrong with better border enforcement; one does not have to be a nativist to support that. The current US border enforcement is well known to be highly uneven -- there is minimal security even at the checkpoints on the Canadian border, and most cargo coming by ship is not checked at all. But don't even think about getting back into the US at San Ysidro without proof of your citizenship!

'Every single person in favour of better border enforcement?'

Read some of awful stuff from the 1850s, when the openly anti-immigrant bigoted American Party almost became the second largest political party in the US and actually controlled the government of several states. The only reason that I would not consider the stuff like the link in my previous comment to be Nazi propaganda is that the Nazi party in Germany hadn't yet been formed at the time it was written -- but it had a huge influence on the public and on the government's draconian and racist immigration policies starting in the 1920s.

That this bigoted attitude is at the root of much of the anti-immigration sentiment today can be seen in the person of Patrick Buchanan. I can't characterize his writings as anything other than openly racist. Not all anti-immigration sentiment is from that root, but it is clear that much of it is. It is to the credit of George W. Bush that he made Buchanan unwelcome in the Republican party.

The other significant source of anti-immigration sentiment among the public is basically protectionist labor. They read the editorial page of the *Wall Street Journal* and its support for open borders and fear that they will not be able to compete with the new immigrants. But immigrants mostly take jobs Americans don't want -- it is a very good thing for America that immigrants are willing to pursue science and engineering degrees and it would be a disaster for the US if we force all those students to go back to their home countries. Note also that on this issue I side with the *Wall Street Journal* and not the AFL-CIO!

1:04 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The game of painting responsible folks with the same brush as extremists with occasionally similar views has equal partisan opportunity, as I am sure you are aware. I am still puzzled by you original pretense that racism is the only logical explanation for treating the Canadian and Mexican borders differently.

4:31 PM  
Blogger Charlie Hall said...

1) Do you disagree that open borders have been good for Jews in the past, and the the closed borders in the 1930s and 1940s were disasterous?

2) Do you disagree that either the 1850s Know-Nothing movement, or the racially discriminatory immigration restrictions that began in the 1880s, were tightened in the 1920s, and were continued up to the mid 1960s were racist in effect if not in intent?

3) Do you disagree that at least some of the leading voices urging restricting immigration today are out and out bigots?

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Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'm not disagreeing with your facts, but I can't see the logic in the inferences that you draw from them. In that spirit, I trust you will accept lengthier responses than just "Yes" or "No" to your questions.

"1) Do you disagree that open borders have been good for Jews in the past, and the the closed borders in the 1930s and 1940s were disasterous?"

It was and is a good thing for free countries to serve as a haven for peoples whose lives are threatened. Equating this with an indiscriminate "open borders" immigration policy that explicitly refuses to evaluate the economic and security impications of mass immigration of unthreatened people is illogical. (On a related note, Pancho Villa may have been the only historical Mexican terrorist, but inferring from that observation that no terrorist threat can emerge from Mexico is unsound. That's another example of your citing a true fact and drawing a baseless conclusion from it.)

"2) Do you disagree that either the 1850s Know-Nothing movement, or the racially discriminatory immigration restrictions that began in the 1880s, were tightened in the 1920s, and were continued up to the mid 1960s were racist in effect if not in intent?"

Nope, but I also don't see it as even marginally relevant to the debate. That strikes me as limited in relevance as the fact that a Republican president signed the Emancipation Proclamation. It's still no excuse for not considering the ramifications of particular policies.

"3) Do you disagree that at least some of the leading voices urging restricting immigration today are out and out bigots?"

Again, I don't disagree, but I see it as irrelevant. Some of the leading voices urging unrestricted immigration (exempla gratis - much of the leadership of La Raza, practically by definition) are also out-and-out bigots.

You seem to think that a policy's merits can be determined by the moral qualities of its advocates, rather than by evaluating its actual anticipated impact. That has some emotional resonance, but following that path will undoubtedly have deletrious societal impacts.

5:59 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

That last screed was mine.

- Moishe Potemkin

6:00 AM  
Blogger Charlie Hall said...

'but inferring from that observation that no terrorist threat can emerge from Mexico is unsound. '

True but irrelevant. Terrorists in the US have either been US-born (Timothy McVeigh) or flown in from across the Atlantic. We have to go with the evidence and there simply isn't any evidence for any Mexican terrorist threat.

'a Republican president signed the Emancipation Proclamation'

Also irrelevant. Lincoln had *opposed* the Know-Nothings in the 1850s. Although some KNs did indeed join the Republican party, it would be decades before the Republicans actually enacted racist immigration legislation.

'Some of the leading voices urging unrestricted immigration (exempla gratis - much of the leadership of La Raza, practically by definition) are also out-and-out bigots.'

Those bigots are few and have little influence. I would consider Atzlan to be out and out racist -- but they are so inconsequential that most Americans have never heard of them. But the anti-immigration bigots like Patrick Buchanan are many and have a large following. Bigotry resulted in the restrictions of the 1920s and the bigots refused to relax the rules to allow Jews to enter the United States in the 1930s and 1940s. Better not to have the restrictions in the first place lest we need another refuge.

I find it interesting that some people who consider themselves to be in favor of free markets support immigration restrictions -- restrictions that may be hurting economic growth:

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/01/22/business/wall.php

10:42 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"True but irrelevant."

That's my point, exactly.

"We have to go with the evidence and there simply isn't any evidence for any Mexican terrorist threat."

That's completely wrong-headed. We have to evaluate what the potential terrorist risks are, a significant one of which is infiltration. Which is not to pretend that there aren't also economic justifications - totally unrelated to racism - for distinguishing between Canada and Mexico, but that is a separate issue.

"But the anti-immigration bigots like Patrick Buchanan are many and have a large following."

Not so many, and Pat Buchanan himself has little actual influence, just a lot of notoriety. Not at all the same thing.

"Better not to have the restrictions in the first place lest we need another refuge."

Again, that's an emotional assertion with no logical support whatsoever. Do you leave your front door wide open at night in case you might need to escape in a hurry?


"I find it interesting that some people who consider themselves to be in favor of free markets support immigration restrictions -- restrictions that may be hurting economic growth."

Well, it's equally interesting that so many opponents of free markets find it to be such a very compelling argument when it suits their purposes.

Besides, your economic argument doesn't even work. The presence and extent of various welfare programs in America render "free-market" analyses of the economic benefits of unrestricted immigration much less accurate. (If, for example, you don't let the free market determine appropriate wages for new immigrants, you won't receive the ideal level of benefits.) In addition, other than for pure anarchists, there is value to citizenship that is diluted by unrestricted immigration. Including the benefits and excluding the costs will obvioulsy produce an inaccurate evaluation of the net benefits of any policy.

- Moishe Potemkin

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Anonymous Anonymous said...

What is the relevance of possible security threats to an open border poilicy? Open border doesn't mean anyone can become a citizen, it simply means removing quotas. There could still be backround checks on potential citizens, similar to the health checks that were in place in past open border eras.

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"There could still be backround checks on potential citizens, similar to the health checks that were in place in past open border eras."

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